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How to Predict Employee Turnover

In a labor market short on skills, attrition is the enemy of organizational growth.  Bill Gates once said that were Microsoft to lose its top 20 employees, it would be a mediocre company.

So, being able to identify potential “flight risks” is a needed predictive that can save money and keep necessary talent in place.  Of course, the best way to manage attrition is by addressing it at the cultural level, but that’s a subject for another post.

Let’s look at how to predict employee turnover, using data to raise the red flag when it looks as though disengagement is setting in.

Quality Data

The importance of data to the success of your business can’t be understated.  Its uses are endless and it’s your friend, when it comes to predicting employee turnover.

Quality data is the root of the type of analytics required to produce an early warning system that helps you retain key staff.

Data provided by HR is the traditional ground for obtaining the needed data.  This information encompasses how long the employee’s been with you, what the employee’s currently being paid, recent pay hikes and percentages, performance in the role and even how far the employee needs to travel to and from work.

Which Data Do I Need?

Every solid model begins with a simple idea.  Starting with a less complex model and building on it will reveal what’s needed, as you move toward an effective predictive framework.

To the HR-provided data we made note of above, a sample of employees who have left the organization which includes the same data subset is useful, as this information can provide a template as to what you’re looking for in terms of flight risk.

Added to all these data sets, the following information has been seen to drastically increase the accuracy of the predictive model:

  • Job satisfaction
  • Comfort in the work environment
  • Other positions held (number)
  • Years working with current manager
  • Rate of engagement

Other variables you may want to include are the state of the current job market, average compensation for the role in question and other third-party indicators which may curtail the risk of the employee leaving – or support that happening.

The larger the data set, the greater the accuracy, so adding additional information doesn’t muddy the waters.  It helps you see the probability of employees turning over more clearly.

High quality data and its analysis is like a scaffold for your employee retention efforts.  With predictive capabilities which are accurate, you have the red flag you need to see where your people stand.

Precedent HR

Precedent HR is setting the standard for data-driven companies who seek to attract and retain top talent.

This job market is competitive for employers who need to keep the wheels turning by getting the right people on the bus.  At Precedent, we help you do that, with an Applicant Tracking System that optimizes recruitment and saves you time.

We add finely-turned Onboarding and Performance Management, helping you build winning teams.  Contact us for a free demo.

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